“Not even thinking about thinking about raising rates.”
Jerome Powell · Former Chair (2018–2026) · U.S. Federal Reserve
“We're not thinking about raising rates. We're not even thinking about thinking about raising rates.”
A claim about the future
The Fed had no intention of raising rates for the foreseeable future.
Rates stayed near zero through 2020–2021; the Fed did not begin hiking until March 2022 — roughly 21 months later — then moved at the fastest pace in decades.
See what happenedIt shows how a call can be literally accurate and still set up the next problem.
Show the receipts.
- QuotedSupportsJun 10, 2020
Jerome Powell · Federal Reserve · Conference
“We're not thinking about raising rates. We're not even thinking about thinking about raising rates.”
- PatternSupports3d ago
What happened since · Filing
“Rates stayed near zero through 2020–2021; the Fed did not begin hiking until March 2022 — roughly 21 months later — then moved at the fastest pace in decades.”
Read narrowly, the guidance held: rates stayed at zero for nearly two years. Read against the inflation it helped enable, it aged into the harder “too loose, too long” critique.
It shows how a call can be literally accurate and still set up the next problem.
The next proof point.
On the record
Graded against sourced outcomes — watch for reversals.
Next CPI print
Whether inflation cools from ~4% toward target.
Next FOMC decision
Whether the new chair hikes to defend the target.
Commit a view. The record will remember whether you were early — or wrong. Both are worth knowing.
Keep the receipts on this one. Save it, track the topic, and follow the arcs it belongs to — then come back when the next proof point lands.
- The Fed’s Long War on InflationContested
Follow the thread.
The “transitory” inflation call
Jerome Powell · Nov 30, 2021
The “some pain” Jackson Hole speech
Jerome Powell · Aug 26, 2022
The soft-landing call
Jerome Powell · Sep 18, 2024